Altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin are finally showing significant moves, regaining some of the market dominance they lost to Bitcoin year-to-date. If the trend continues it could mark the beginning of a new “altseason.”
Bitcoin’s market share began rising Dec. 2018. Following a 327 percent upswing, BTC went from $3,200 to nearly $14,000 in a matter of six months. During that time, its dominance broke out of an ascending triangle that was forming on its 1-week chart.
Per the bullish formation, BTC was expected to experience a 38.7 percent upswing that could have taken it to 80 percent market share, similar to what Max Keiser, host of RT’s Keiser Report, forecasted.
Bitcoin rose to levels of dominance not seen since 2017, peaking at 73.4 percent market share. Now, BTC dominance moved below the 71.5 percent support level and the 200-week moving average, signaling a further correction down to the 150-week moving average. This coincides with the most recent report by Binance, suggesting that BTC dominance will go back to the 50–60 percent range.
“We still believe in this, partly because BTC dominance was below 60 percent for an extended period, from May 2017 until June 2019. It has only been in the past three months or so that BTC dominance has shot up so dramatically, and the crypto-world has found its way of making everyone feel like a prisoner of the moment. Short-term wise, though, BTC dominance may be sticking around,” reads the report.
Due to the fact that assets that break out of ascending triangle patterns usually reverse to the breakout point, the bearish scenario for BTC dominance doesn’t seem unlikely.
In fact, the altcoin dominance 1-week chart tells a similar story. At the moment, altcoin dominance is sitting in the ‘golden’ retracement area based on the Fibonacci retracement indicator.
Since Jan. 2018, altcoin dominance plummeted over 57 percent to reach the 61.8 and 65 percent Fibonacci retracement zone. This area represents a pivotal point for the altcoin dominance trend. A significant correction, like the one just experienced to this level, suggests that a rebound could be underway.
In addition, altcoin dominance has been trading inside an ascending parallel channel since March 2014. Since that point, every time it reaches the bottom of the channel it bounces off to the middle or the top; when it reaches the top it falls back to the bottom. Currently, altcoins are trading at the bottom of the ascending parallel channel, adding credibility to a potential rebound that could trigger a new “altseason.”
If these bullish signals are validated, altcoin dominance could surge to the 50, 38.2 or even the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level. This implies that altcoin dominance has the opportunity to hit a market share of 40 to 55 percent.
Signs of a new “altseason”
Despite the indicators, it is unknown when a new “altseason” will take place. What is known is that over the last few days Bitcoin is staggering while altcoins are surging.
Based on its 1-week chart, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after peaking at nearly $14,000 on June 26. As a result, a symmetrical triangle formed under this time frame presenting opposing views about the future market valuation of BTC.
This technical formation represents a period of consolidation before the price is forced to breakout in a negative or positive trend. A move below the lower trendline marks the start of a new bearish trend. Meanwhile, a move above the upper trendline indicates the start of a new bullish trend.
By measuring the distance between the initial high and low, the symmetrical triangle predicts a 34.5 percent target in both directions. Thus, if the selling pressure behind BTC increases it could drop the price down to $6,400. Conversely, a spike in volume could result in a breakout that takes BTC up to $13,400.
While Bitcoin is still figuring out in which direction it will move altcoins have already started rising.
Ethereum, for instance, is breaking out of a falling wedge pattern that developed on its 1-week chart. In combination with a buy signal (in the form of a green nine) per the TD sequential indicator, ETH could be targeting a 38 percent surge to hit $242. If the buying pressure behind this cryptocurrency increases it could even reach $300 in the following weeks.
XRP experienced a 27 percent upswing in the last few days, which took it to regain the $0.30 level as support. Now, if XRP is able to move above $0.33 it could try to test the next levels of resistance around $0.38, $0.42 and $0.47.
Finally, Litecoin was able to bounce off the “golden” retracement area, based on the Fibonacci retracement indicator, and is up 15 percent. And, because of the potential the Fibonacci retracement zone has to reverse its trend, LTC could soon trade at $85 or even $100.
The significant altcoin upswing over the last few days can be seen across the entire market, with tokens such as Stellar Lumens surging more than 50 percent over the last week. It seems like altcoins are taking the spotlight in preparation for a new “altseason” while Bitcoin continues consolidating. If this is the case, altcoin dominance could rise to 40 percent.
It is worth noting that Bakkt is currently preparing to offer its physically-settled Bitcoin futures. This could bring an influx of capital that allows BTC to reach new yearly highs as trading volume increases. Hence, it will be wise to keep an eye on Bitcoin since it may soon experience higher levels of volatility.
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